“Women don’t sleep with nice guys” – how I think that rumour got started

I think the way some men came to that conclusion is like this:

Their Premise 1: “I am a nice guy”

The majority of people on this planet thinks of themself as decent people. Murderers think of themselves that way, and philanthropists do too. People who work at rape crisis centres think of themselves as good people, and rapists do too.

Their Premise 2: “Some guys get more sexual action than me – and they are not as nice as I am”

That may or may not be true. Other possible truths about some of these situations could be:

> The guy who claims to get all the attention could be lying about their success with women, with the unsuccessful guys believing him.

> The “nice guy” with that perception could be less nice than the one who gets the action – but he overvalues himself.

Their Conclusion: Women prefer guys who are not so nice, and hate good guys

Firstly, both premises may or may not be true. But if the premises are both true, it could also lead to other conclusions.

> The not-nice guy who gets the girl could be one who ignored the woman’s “no” – and women are afraid to go to the police, as the message will tend to be that it is hard to prove rape if she actually went on a date with him.

> Some not-nice guys are liars. Women sleep with them because they think these guys are good guys, who accept responsibility/ want to marry them/ are financially capable of doing their part/ will stop hitting them/ love them/  do not have a criminal record/ whatever. In this case, the woman does not want to date a bad guy, but she believes untrue things about this guy’s goodness.

> Women do not hate men they do not sleep with – they often deeply respect and appreciate many men whom they do not sleep with, the same way many men have respect and appreciation for some men they do not sleep with.

> Men who sleep around less are actually, statistically more likely to get and stay married – if women really hated them, the opposite would have been true.

My conclusion:

All of the above leads me to a different conclusion about men who complain of being “too nice” to be wanted by women: If a man complains that treating women “nice” is wrong because he don’t get women to use and throw away that way, he is not nice enough at heart. In his heart, he is an exploiter who idolize successful exploiters.

Vox Day is wrong about women: Part 2

 Vox:

 B) Irrationally uses things that does not qualify as evidence for evidence:

Vox claim #3) :  Romance novels and romance TV are nothing more or less than female porn. Most women will furiously deny it, but their very vehemence underlines the reality.

So, if someone deny something strongly, the truth of it is underlined? Vox vehemently deny that women’s votes are good for society. Does that underline the reality of women’s votes being good for society? He vehemently denies the rationality of Sam Harris. Does that make Harris rational?

 Vox claim #4) Do you know the story of Snow White? Then surely you remember how the seven dwarves took her in when she was homeless, provided her with food and shelter, and cared so much about her that they shed tears for her and built her a spectacular crystal pedestal.

And of course, you will recall that she ran off with Prince Charming at the very first opportunity.

…we can draw two important conclusions from the fairy tale. One, behaving like a dwarf won’t get you the girl.

 What, according to him, was the behavior of the dwarfs, behavior that won’t get the girl? It was providing for her and treated her as important (“Pedestalize” is the word he always use for that.) Snow White, he claims, did not really care about provision or a pedestal, but ran off despite it. (Leave aside, for a moment, that Snow White is fictitious.)

 Think for a moment: Who could provide better food and housing and clothes, the prince or the dwarfs?

Which is the better pedestal: A glass coffin? OR The title princess, a royal wedding, and the opportunity to order servants around in a palace, rather than cook and clean for dwarfs?

 If Snow White is a metaphor for female behavior, she is not evidence at all that a pedestal and provision is not what women want. (Is his inability to notice this perhaps due to his being the son of a very rich man, and wanting to rationalize that his personality, not his dad’s money, attracted females to him?)

His second conclusion is not even in the story. It is something he prefers to ascribe to the prince’s behavior: The prince don’t stick around, Vox claims, to ask the girl twice.

Conclusion:

 On topics related to women, Vox cannot apply his observations rationally.

 (To be continued)

To marry or not to marry: For men.

 Marriage advocates tell us that married people are happier and healthier and wealthier. But they tend to forget that marriage is also the lead cause of divorce, and divorce make people less happy and less wealthy.

On the other hand, a growing number of marriage opponents tell men: Do not marry. Do not have children. Fool around, pick up women, use and dump them. Because in the Western world, divorce laws mean that women can and will walk out on you any time, leaving you without wife and kids and taking along most of your money. These tend to forget that many marriages are actually beneficial.

Statistically, which advice is most sound? Is it more beneficial for men to stay single, or to take the marriage gamble, which may leave you better off if you stay married, and worse if you divorce? By lack of better data, we will assume that the popular statistical myth is true: That half of American marriages end in divorce.*

Does getting married (having no idea if your marriage will work out or not) increase your chance of wealth?

Married men earn approximately 11 percent more per hour than men who have never been married, even after controlling for work experience, education, age and other factors. Economists also find that divorced or separated men make about 9 percent more than never-married men.

The person who marries is, on average (considering a 50% chance of divorce), likely to make 10% per hour more, compared to the one who never marry.

For people on the verge of retirement
* Married couples had accumulated $410,000

* Never married accumulated $167,000

* Divorced acccumulated $154,000

Since there are 2 people in a marriage, the $410,000 has to be divided by two for this calculation.

Married:Divorced:Never-Married have accumulated wealth 205:154:167 to each other.

The person who marries is, on average (considering a 50% chance of divorce), likely to retire with about $179 000** compared to the $167,000 of the one who never marry.

Another study of about 9,000 people found that divorce reduces a person’s wealth by about three-quarters (77 percent) compared to that of a single person, while being married almost doubles comparative wealth (93 percent.)

By that metric, the average divorcee has $23 for every $100 that the single, and $193 that the average married person has. (The same study also claims the average divorced man has about 2,5 times as much money as the average divorced woman, so he actually has $38,33 for every $100 that the single person has.)

The person who marries is, on average (considering a 50% chance of divorce), likely to have about  $115 dollar for every $100 of the one who never marry.

All in all, the person who marries is, on average, likely to end up with more than the one who never marry.

Does getting married (having no idea if your marriage will work out or not) increase or decrease the chance of happiness?

* 40 percent of the married said they are very happy with their life in general, compared to just 22 % of those who were single or who were cohabitating. The separated (15 percent very happy) and the divorced (18 percent very happy) were the least happy.

On the other end of the happiness scale, just 7 percent of married Americans say they are “not too happy” with life in general, compared to 13 percent of singles, and 18 percent of the divorced.

Married: Divorced: Never-Married have “very happy levels at rates 40:18:22 to each other. Married: Divorced: Never-Married have unhappiness levels at rates 7:18:13 to each other.

The average person who marry increase his chance of being very happy from 23% to 29%; and the average marrying person marginally decreases his/ her unhappiness chance from 13% to 12,5%.

Does getting married (having no idea if your marriage will work out or not) increase the risk that you will be so unhappy as to commit suicide?

Married men are only half as likely as bachelors and one-third as likely as divorced guys to take their own lives. Married: Divorced: Never-Married have divorce chances 1:3:2 to each other.

It averages out- the man with no idea if his marriage will end in divorce or not has roundabout the same chance of suicide as the one who stay single.

Does getting married (having no idea if your marriage will work out or not) increase your life expectancy?

The percentages living to age sixty five are 88 percent of married men versus 69 percent of widowed men, 65 percent of divorced men and 63 percent of never-married men.

The man who marries, wether he divorce or not, still has a higher life expectancy.

Conclusion:

For the average man, marriage is a worthy gamble, although not remarkably superior. But don’t be average. You can greatly increase your odds, and make your gamble a lot safer, by things like choosing your partner well, your ages at the time of marriage, your religious commitment, your education level and choosing a woman who’se parents stayed married, and by knowing the possible legal pitfalls and taking steps to avoid them. And if a man does not merit a women who fulfills several of the requirements (under “greatly increase your odds” and “choosing your partner well”), and he himself fulfills few of them? In that case, the doomsayers may be right, and it may be better for him to stay single.

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*This 50% is based on the amount of weddings in a year, and divorces that same year, and does not take into account the amount of already married people. The chances that a particular marriage will end in divorce is actually impossible to calculate.

 **A 50% chance of being in the $205,000 group, and a 50% chance of being in the $154,000 group, average out on that. All further calculations in this piece also average out between the married and divorced.

Vox Day is wrong about women (Part 1)

Blogger Vox Day, on his blog, tries to tell men what women are like and how to approach relationships. Leaving aside for a moment my theory that his view on women may be selection bias, let us examine the evidence: Is Vox objective, and likely to refer to accurate data, when discussing women? How correct is he on the topic? He:

A) Claims evidentially wrong things about male/ female relationships:

Vox claims #1) If you want to keep a relationship going, act like an alpha male. (Implied in most of his posts on game.)

Now, while it is a truism that some women fall, short term, for alphas, an alpha male statistically has a smaller chance of staying married. For every married alpha (40,9% of them are married) there are 0.54 divorced alphas. For every married man who had only 1-2 sexual partners* (73,8% of them are married) there are 0,037 divorced ones.

Acting like an alpha is great for the pick up artist, not for keeping a woman. An alpha’s marriage is, in fact, 14 times as likely to end in divorce. Vox is probably giving sound advice for the pick up artist on how to get short term relationships (one night stands), but atrocious advice to the married man.

Vox claims #2… it is a very risky and probably foolish endeavor for men to marry women over the age of 25.

Actually, partners over 25 are more statistically likely to give you a stable, lasting marriage. It is the younger partners that are most likely to sink a marriage. It is a very risky and probably foolish endeavor to marry if you or your partner is under 25, even more so if both of you are.
Vox evidentially does not always know what he talks about when giving advice on this topic.
(To be continued.)

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Note:

*This statistical source uses the word “alpha” in the same sense as Vox does, but not “beta”. Vox arranges men in at least 7 groups, of whom betas have more success with women than anyone except alphas and sigmas. This source use beta as the opposite of alpha.)